The Asset Quality Review (“AQR”) will provide the first reliable stress test of European banks. It will improve the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and will be a key positive macro trigger for Europe in 2014. But it comes with a cost: the risk of bail-in for large European banks. Among the true systemic institutions, the one we believe it the most at risk is Monte dei Paschi (“MPS”): high non-performing loans (“NPL”) ratio, large book of Italian govies, capital base of low quality, no asset relief measures, etc.