The outburst of optimism from the last Eurogroup and Heads of State meetings on Greece faded away very quickly. The IMF did not join the press conference and this should have been a warning. In very broad terms, the current situation is the following: IMF wants structural reforms, spending cuts and debt relief (except for its share of course), Germany wants the IMF on board and no debt relief and Greece is pretty much ready to accept any tax, stupid or not, but no pension cut (they have blinked on pretty much anything else). Our base case scenario is still that a deal will be reached and approved by the Greek parliament, maybe not as soon as June 30th because an IMF default is not a real deadline with hard consequences [1], but in the summer.